"Popular unrest about immigration to the U.K. [United Kingdom] is largely caused by low-skilled EU [European Union], family and refugee migration. Skilled migration is much less of an issue,” said immigration attorney Emily King of Berry Appleman & Leiden in London. “The premise of economic growth in London is based on attracting talent from around the world, and I don’t see that changing.”129 The key question is whether political promises will interfere with good policies.
Advisers often tell elected officials not to promise things beyond their control. In the case of immigration, the U.K. government does not control the annual level of immigration. But in a 2010 election pledge British Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party pledged to reduce net migration to the U.K. to the “tens of thousands.”
The problem with such a promise is that, as a member of the EU, the U.K. is legally bound to permit citizens of the EU the opportunity to work in the U.K. Since the U.K. economy has performed better than most of its neighbors, it has attracted more EU citizens into the country. In short, without violating its pledge as an EU member, the only direct way the U.K. government can control immigration levels is by reducing non-EU migration. An alternative the U.K. government has proposed is to reduce welfare rights as a way to discourage immigration from the EU. Separately, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said limiting welfare rights could constitute common ground for reform.130
David Cameron has pledged, if the Conservative Party remains in power, to hold a referendum in 2017 on whether the U.K. should stay in the EU. That has made the question of immigration from the EU more urgent, particularly in light of the unexpectedly high vote tallies of the populist U.K. Independence Party in local elections in 2013, as well as 2014 elections to the European Parliament. Currently, the percentage of the population that is foreign born in the U.K. is 12 percent, just below the level of the United States.131The U.K. government has made gaining permanent residence harder for families and asylum seekers, including by requiring them to “demonstrate knowledge of the language and life in the United Kingdom.”132
Economists have pointed out that dramatically reducing immigration to the U.K. would harm the U.K. economy, causing gross domestic product to fall by 11 percent and requiring a tax increase to make up the budget shortfall.133 Ironically, between December 2011 and December 2014, even as more British politicians started voicing concerns about immigrants “taking jobs” because of increased immigration, the unemployment rate in the U.K. dropped significantly, from approximately 8.4 percent to 6 percent.134
Cameron has appeared to step back from earlier statements about seeking to impose quotas on EU migration to the U.K., which would violate the “freedom of movement” principle central to EU membership. “David Cameron has beat a retreat over Tory plans for Britain to impose a cap on numbers of European Union migrant workers in response to soaring levels of immigration, confounding hopes among many of his backbench MPs,” reported The Independent.135 British Home Secretary Theresa May has conceded the inevitable — the net migration target of “tens of thousands” pledged in 2010 is unlikely to be met.136
Except for some minor rule tightening, the government has not made hiring highly skilled foreign nationals more difficult for employers. Temporary workers for high-skilled positions gain approval with few denials, according to attorneys, although the process can take more than a month when positions require advertising. While monthly quotas for high-skilled foreign nationals exist, they have never been reached, although the numbers have gradually increased and observers think the quotas could be reached if the U.K. economy continues to perform well. The points-based system for temporary workers only ratified existing requirements by assigning points to such things as a job offer. Anyone with English language skills who is also qualified for a high-skilled job should meet the points threshold.137 Those unable to meet it may qualify as intracompany transferees, requests for which are usually granted.138
129. Interview with Emily King.
130. Arne Delfs and Patrick Donahue (January 7, 2015), “Merkel Said to Offer Cameron Common Ground on Immigration,” Bloomberg.
131. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
133. Katerina Lisenkova, Miguel Sanchez-Martinez and Marcel Merette (December 2013), “The Long-Term Economic Impacts of Reducing Migration: The Case of the UK Migration Policy,” National Institute of Economic and Social Research, NIESR Discussion Paper Number 420.
134. Trading Economics.
135. Nigel Morris (November 28, 2014), “Cameron Forced to Retreat on Immigration: ‘Game-changing’ Speech Makes Unexpected Concessions to EU leaders,” The Independent.
136. Nicholas Watt (November 23, 2014), “Theresa May Says ‘No Ifs, No Buts’ pledge on Migration likely to Fail,” The Guardian.
137. Interviews with Emily King and Supinder Sian.
138. Ibid. The U.K. government must deem the position highly skilled and within the Standard Occupation Codes, which are published and available for public review.